Keep your guac extra close tonight and in the days to come.
The general public has added "supply chain shortages" to its collective vocabulary. Once the annoyance of having to wait longer than a free two-day shipping for frivolities turned to amusement, the phrase got meme'd and became the answer to all manner of personal, professional and theoretical shortcomings.
NYC hospitality professionals are used to this kind of thing. A supposed cream cheese shortage swept through town just last December. Bacon ebbs and flows. And the rosé all day lifestyle seems to be endangered every other season. Avocados often make a frequent appearance in linked shortage and price hike narratives.
“Working in concert with the U.S. Department of State’s Regional Security Officer, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) suspended avocado export program operations in the state of Michoacán, Mexico, on February 11, 2022, following a security incident (a verbal threat) involving our employees.” reads a statement from the USDA. “The suspension will remain in place for as long as necessary to ensure the appropriate actions are taken, to secure the safety of APHIS personnel working in Mexico.”
“The disruption of avocado imports has actually existed for a very long time, due to the ongoing issues in Michoacan, Mexico with problems that come from organized crime charging farmers to operate”
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By all restauranteur accounts, avocado has now become a fickle fruit to source.
Cenobio Canalizo, executive chef and partner at Tiny's Cantina, was already navigating increased avocado prices before the news broke out. He recently had to 86 the avocado from Tiny's Mexican Burger, eliminating both the avocado salsa and retiring the pork belly guac from the restaurant's rotating specials. In the coming weeks, they expect it to go up even more, doubling the original price. Being a Mexican restaurant, avocados are a central ingredient on Tiny's menu. As the prices began to rise, they had to start finding new ways to avoid using them as much as they usually do, without impacting the quality or presentation.
Venezuelan restaurant Casa Ora's owner Rachel Diaz Pirard also notes that the existing hospitality roadblocks she's faced have amplified during the pre-vaccine pandemic when many ingredients have become more challenging to source than before.
"It's not limited to avocados, but this is the most "trendy" of all disruptions," she says.
This has driven Casa Ora's restaurant to a state of constant planning, purchasing more immature avocados and cycling up through batches as they ripen. Wildly fluctuating prices have also prepared Casa Ora to zag, swinging from $30-35 in-season and $50 off prior to the pandemic.
"The way things are going we are likely to have to forgo avocados altogether," says Diaz Pirard. Our previously priced guacamole at $14 would have to rise to over $20 to cover the shift costs and still aim to provide fair pricing, high quality, and menu consistency. Instead, they are now working on a "new guac" which is either a salsa spread with fresh-made chips or something similar to replace the original guacamole.
Nobody wants to replace the original guacamole, but this is surely a clear sign that there is no end in sight.
The impact will be felt as restaurants are responsible for absorbing the price hikes. Assuming the shortage lasts for a while, all dishes that use avocado will have to be potentially removed from menus until their prices stabilize.
